MARKET DATA, INC. |
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Pre-Harvest Historical Pricing
Recommendations Review to September 27, 2005 |
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A. |
REVIEW ON SEPTEMBER FUTURES: |
Average |
In year of |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
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to 7-5 |
to 7-1 |
to 7-2 |
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1. |
WHEAT - Pre-Harvest
"GOOD" Ratings |
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$3.81 |
<
without NA years |
$3.74 |
$4.01 |
$3.78 |
$3.33 |
$3.57 |
NA |
NA |
$3.74 |
$4.51 |
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2. |
WHEAT -
Pre-Harvest SEP Futures High |
$3.97 |
<
without NA years |
$3.74 |
$4.31 |
$3.95 |
$3.39 |
$3.66 |
$3.27 |
$3.49 |
$3.79 |
$4.98 |
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3. |
MDI - "GOOD" Rating as a % of the
High |
95.91% |
< of
HIGH |
100.00% |
92.92% |
95.76% |
98.23% |
97.54% |
NA |
NA |
98.68% |
90.63% |
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Number of Weekly "GOOD" Ratings in
the Year were |
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1 |
17 |
10 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
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4. |
WHEAT - Pre-Harvest
"POOR" Ratings |
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$3.18 |
<
without NA years |
$3.29 |
NA |
$3.16 |
$3.03 |
NA |
$3.04 |
$2.87
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$3.28 |
$3.57 |
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5. |
WHEAT -
Pre-Harvest SEP Futures Low |
$3.01 |
<
without NA years |
$3.13 |
$3.30 |
$3.02 |
$2.87 |
$2.93 |
$2.93 |
$2.74 |
$3.02 |
$3.37 |
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6. |
MDI - "POOR" Rating as a % of the Low |
94.79% |
< of
LOW |
95.29% |
NA |
95.57% |
94.72% |
NA |
96.11% |
95.47% |
92.07% |
94.53% |
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Number of Weekly "POOR" Ratings in
the Year were |
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2 |
0 |
13 |
25 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
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B. |
REVIEW ON DECEMBER FUTURES: |
Average |
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2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
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to 9-27 |
to 11-1 |
to 9-30 |
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1. |
CORN - Pre-Harvest "GOOD" Ratings |
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$2.62 |
<
without NA years |
$2.45 |
$2.90 |
$2.49 |
$2.60 |
$2.45 |
$2.62
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NA |
$2.59
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$2.90 |
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2. |
CORN
- Pre-Harvest DEC Futures
High |
$2.83 |
<
without NA years |
$2.70 |
$3.37 |
$2.52 |
$2.92 |
$2.62 |
$2.67 |
$2.50 |
$2.90 |
$2.98 |
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3. |
MDI - "GOOD" Rating as a % of the
High |
92.59% |
< of
HIGH |
90.65% |
86.26% |
99.01% |
88.96% |
93.23% |
98.04% |
NA |
89.31% |
97.38% |
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Number of Weekly "GOOD" Ratings in
the Year were |
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12 |
26 |
2 |
13 |
8 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
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4. |
CORN - Pre-Harvest "POOR" Ratings |
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$2.11 |
<
without NA years |
$2.12 |
NA |
$2.14 |
$2.33 |
$2.13 |
$1.95 |
$2.01 |
$2.08 |
NA |
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5. |
CORN
- Pre-Harvest DEC Futures Low |
$2.01 |
<
without NA years |
$2.03 |
$2.03 |
$2.12 |
$2.17 |
$2.03 |
$1.87 |
$1.88 |
$1.96 |
$2.27 |
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6. |
MDI - "POOR" Rating as a % of the Low |
95.29% |
< of
LOW |
95.98% |
NA |
98.72% |
93.13% |
95.42% |
96.25% |
93.28% |
94.41% |
NA |
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Number of Weekly "POOR" Ratings in
the Year were |
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5 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
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C. |
REVIEW ON NOVEMBER FUTURES: |
Average |
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2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
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to 9-27 |
to 10-1 |
to 9-23 |
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1. |
BEANS - Pre-Harvest
"GOOD" Ratings |
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$6.22 |
<
without NA years |
$6.43 |
$7.13 |
$5.88 |
$5.75 |
NA |
$5.64 |
NA |
$6.15 |
$6.53
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2. |
BEANS -
Pre-Harvest NOV Futures High |
$6.88 |
<
without NA years |
$7.66 |
$7.89 |
$6.51 |
$5.89 |
$5.23 |
$5.84 |
$6.10 |
$6.86 |
$7.50 |
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3. |
MDI - "GOOD" Rating as a % of the
High |
90.38% |
< of
HIGH |
83.98% |
90.42% |
90.36% |
97.62% |
NA |
96.60% |
NA |
89.65% |
87.00% |
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Number of Weekly "GOOD" Ratings in
the Year were |
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30 |
20 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
6 |
20 |
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4. |
BEANS - Pre-Harvest
"POOR" Ratings |
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$4.94 |
<
without NA years |
$5.57 |
$5.75 |
$5.06 |
$4.59 |
$4.50 |
$4.84 |
$4.24 |
NA |
NA |
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5. |
BEANS -
Pre-Harvest NOV Futures Low |
$4.65 |
<
without NA years |
$5.21 |
$5.24 |
$4.98 |
$4.30 |
$4.20 |
$4.47 |
$4.12 |
$5.08 |
$5.77 |
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6. |
MDI - "POOR" Rating as a % of the Low |
94.09% |
< of
LOW |
93.45% |
91.00% |
98.47% |
93.68% |
93.34% |
92.30% |
97.17% |
NA |
NA |
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Number of Weekly "POOR" Ratings in
the Year were |
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1 |
3 |
5 |
30 |
24 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
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D. |
COMMENTS ABOUT THESE RATINGS: |
A
100% RATING COULD ONLY BE OBTAINED WITH ONE Good or Poor rating on |
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the exact HIGH or LOW date each year but these
were weekly reports! |
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1. |
A Market Data, Inc. (MDI) "GOOD" rating is
an indicator that the cash price may be approaching a high and that |
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some price protection might be a good
idea. This could be cash sales,
futures short hedges, buying put options |
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or other methods of protecting prices from a
potential drop from current levels. |
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2. |
A MDI
"POOR" rating is an indicator that
the cash price may be approaching a low or bottom. This should alert |
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producers
to check their short hedges (vs. local loan rates) for possibly taking profit
on these hedges or put |
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options or to consider taking Loan Deficiency
Payments (LDP's) or Marketing Loan Gains (MLG's) or possibly |
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looking at a long futures position or call
option purchase to protect a potential upcoming LDP or MLG. |
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