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MARKET DATA, INC. | ||||||||||||
Analysis of Weekly Review Rating and Market Progress | NEW CROP | ***** 1998 WHEAT CROP ***** | ||||||||||
As of: | 7/29/1998 | **** OBERLIN BASIS *** | ||||||||||
Date | Rating | Contract | Current | % | Futures | Futures | Cash | Cash Move | Today's | vs Past | % | |
Month | Futures | of High | Move Up | Move Down | Change | Hi to Low | Cash | Average | of Past | |||
PRE-HARVEST REVIEW: Based on similar years from Date shown to August 22nd. | ||||||||||||
2/25/1998 | FAIR | SEP | $3.57 | 72.14% | $0.36 | ($0.51) | NA | $1.02 | $3.11 | $3.21 | 96.81% | |
3/11/1998 | GOOD | SEP | $3.74 | 75.49% | $0.41 | ($0.44) | $0.17 | $1.02 | $3.28 | $3.20 | 102.43% | |
4/29/1998 | POOR | SEP | $3.28 | 66.29% | $0.43 | ($0.33) | ($0.34) | $0.94 | $2.77 | $3.18 | 87.00% | |
Changed similar years due to large increase in U.S. and World stocks of wheat from May 12th USDA report. | ||||||||||||
7/29/1998 | FAIR | SEP | $2.74 | 67.14% | $0.07 | ($0.11) | ($0.93) | $0.21 | $2.18 | $2.86 | 76.27% | |
MDI'S AVERAGE "GOOD " FUTURES PRICE | $3.74 | Futures High was | $3.79 | 98.68% | ||||||||
AVERAGE FUTURES PRICE FOR THE PERIOD | $0.58 | |||||||||||
AMOUNT "GOOD" OVER FUTURES AVERAGE PRICE | $3.16 | |||||||||||
NOTE #1: | Notice that the "GOOD" rating showed a potential Cash Move Hi to Low of $1.02. IF the "GOOD" rating is signaling a price | |||||||||||
close to the High, it means the potential move down during this time frame is around $1.00. This works over the long term. | ||||||||||||
NOTE #2: | It appears that when the Today's Cash price is at or above 95% of the Past Average price in similar years, better selling | |||||||||||
opportunities are likely. When it is above 102-105%, prices should be looked at closely for selling or hedging. | ||||||||||||
NOTE #3: | It also appears that when the Today's Cash price is at or below 85% of the Past Average price, selling or pricing grain | |||||||||||
may not be in your best interests - EXCEPT IF - your TARGET PRICES have been reached! | ||||||||||||
Copyright 2001, Market Data, Inc.