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MARKET DATA, INC. | ||||||||||||
Analysis of Weekly Review Rating and Market Progress | NEW CROP | ***** 1997 WHEAT CROP ***** | ||||||||||
As of: | 02/18/98 | **** OBERLIN BASIS **** | ||||||||||
Date | Rating | Contract | Current | % | Futures | Futures | Cash | Cash Move | Today's | vs Past | % | |
Month | Futures | of High | Move Up | Move Down | Change | Hi to Low | Cash | Average | of Past | |||
PRE-HARVEST REVIEW: Based on similar years from the date listed to August 22. | ||||||||||||
11/22/1996 | POOR | SEP | $3.50 | 52.40% | $0.68 | ($0.46) | NA | $1.28 | $3.05 | $3.31 | 92.15% | |
1/24/1997 | POOR | SEP | $3.54 | 52.99% | $0.63 | ($0.50) | $0.01 | $1.48 | $3.06 | $3.50 | 87.43% | |
2/6/1997 | POOR | SEP | $3.51 | 52.54% | $0.55 | ($0.52) | ($0.02) | $1.44 | $3.03 | $3.50 | 86.57% | |
2/13/1997 | POOR | SEP | $3.59 | 53.65% | $0.51 | ($0.55) | $0.05 | $1.42 | $3.10 | $3.49 | 88.83% | |
2/19/1997 | POOR | SEP | $3.62 | 54.13% | $0.53 | ($0.54) | $0.09 | $1.41 | $3.14 | $3.49 | 89.97% | |
4/16/1997 | GOOD | SEP | $4.38 | 65.57% | $0.65 | ($0.51) | $0.98 | $1.19 | $4.03 | $3.48 | 115.80% | |
4/26/1997 | GOOD | SEP | $4.61 | 68.95% | $0.58 | ($0.60) | $1.11 | $1.19 | $4.16 | $3.48 | 119.54% | |
4/30/1997 | GOOD | SEP | $4.55 | 68.11% | $0.63 | ($0.55) | $1.00 | $1.16 | $4.05 | $3.47 | 116.71% | |
6/18/1997 | POOR | SEP | $3.63 | 63.62% | $0.36 | ($0.29) | $0.10 | $0.69 | $3.15 | $3.42 | 92.17% | |
MDI'S AVERAGE "GOOD " PRICE - FUTURES PRICE | $4.51 | Futures High was | $4.98 | |||||||||
AVERAGE FUTURES PRICE FOR THE PERIOD WAS | $3.87 | vs. MDI Average | $4.51 | |||||||||
AMOUNT "GOOD" OVER AVERAGE PRICE | $0.64 | MDI as a % of High | 90.63% | |||||||||
NOTE #1: | The "POOR" rating given on 11/22/96 means that our system feels prices are close to a bottom. Using the Cash Move Hi | |||||||||||
to Low figure of $1.28 + Today's Cash Price of $3.05 means a target top price of $4.33. We feel that using 80-90% of the | ||||||||||||
projected Cash Change price for long term planning may be appropriate. Using this figure for downward movement in pric | ||||||||||||
following a "GOOD" rating may also be worthwhile to evaluate risk. This becomes less valuable over short time periods. | ||||||||||||
NOTE #2: | Pricing with a "GOOD" rating and a % of Past over 102-105% appears profitable and not selling with a "POOR" rating and | |||||||||||
price below 95% of Past also appears prudent - REMEMBER YOUR TARGET PRICES and PRICE at or above those pric | ||||||||||||
MARKET DATA, INC. | ||||||||||||
Analysis of Weekly Review Rating and Market Progress | OLD CROP | ***** 1997 WHEAT CROP ***** | ||||||||||
As of: | 02/18/98 | **** OBERLIN BASIS **** | ||||||||||
Date | Rating | Contract | Current | % | Futures | Futures | Cash | Cash Move | Today's | vs Past | % | |
Month | Futures | of High | Move Up | Move Down | Change | Hi to Low | Cash | Average | of Past | |||
POST HARVEST REVIEW: Based on the similar years prices from the Date to February 22 on MAR and April 22nd on MAY. | ||||||||||||
8/20/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $4.00 | 69.67% | $0.38 | ($0.42) | $0.35 | $0.75 | $3.40 | $3.27 | 103.94% | |
8/27/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $4.04 | 69.78% | $0.37 | ($0.40) | $0.37 | $0.72 | $3.42 | $3.27 | 104.56% | |
9/3/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $4.05 | 72.72% | $0.36 | ($0.38) | $0.39 | $0.67 | $3.44 | $3.27 | 105.16% | |
9/10/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.99 | 71.14% | $0.32 | ($0.38) | $0.28 | $0.65 | $3.33 | $3.27 | 101.86% | |
9/17/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.94 | 67.83% | $0.29 | ($0.35) | $0.17 | $0.61 | $3.22 | $3.27 | 98.55% | |
9/24/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.90 | 69.12% | $0.29 | ($0.32) | $0.16 | $0.60 | $3.21 | $3.27 | 98.25% | |
10/8/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.88 | 69.04% | $0.24 | ($0.34) | $0.22 | $0.55 | $3.27 | $3.27 | 100.05% | |
10/15/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.93 | 69.71% | $0.20 | ($0.34) | $0.25 | $0.53 | $3.30 | $3.27 | 100.99% | |
10/22/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.91 | 69.49% | $0.18 | ($0.33) | $0.23 | $0.52 | $3.28 | $3.27 | 100.43% | |
10/29/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.83 | 68.01% | $0.23 | ($0.25) | $0.19 | $0.50 | $3.24 | $3.27 | 99.20% | |
11/5/1997 | GOOD | MAR | $3.79 | 67.54% | $0.18 | ($0.25) | $0.20 | $0.44 | $3.25 | $3.27 | 99.52% | |
MDI'S AVERAGE "GOOD " PRICE - FUTURES PRICE | $3.93 | |||||||||||
AVERAGE FUTURES PRICE | $3.72 | |||||||||||
AMOUNT "GOOD" OVER AVERAGE PRICE | $0.22 | |||||||||||
These are considered Old Crop (OC) ratings. | ||||||||||||
Copyright 2001, Market Data, Inc.