Crop or Livestock Call Option Review - Example

Click here to link to KW Wheat Futures. A. Crop or Livestock: <Please Select a Commodity> CornSoybeansWheat-KCWheat-ChicagoSoybean OilSoy MealGrain SorghumFeeder CattleLive CattleLean HogsBackgrounding CattleCow / CalfStocker CattleGrass Cattle select the commodity to be reviewed   B. Futures Strike Price: enter the Strike Price of the option to be purchased C. Cost of Option: enter the cost of the Option, for example .15 = 15 cents per bushel D. Gain or Profit Desired: enter the gain desired on the Option, for example .25 = 25 cents per bushel E. Option Expiration Month JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember enter the month the Option expires (the month prior to the Option purchased) F. Years to Review 123451015202530 Calculate Option Review Number of Checks Left: 2835   G. To calculate every 5 years for the last 30, check here Clear All Reviews   Printable View   Crop or Livestock Years Reviewed Target Month end of Futures Target Price Target Probability Futures Futures Move Needed Move Probability   Last years Similar Years Month Year Price Last years Similar Years Wheat-KC 3 May $3.65 66.7% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 33.3% 16.7% del Wheat-KC 5 May $3.65 40.0% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 20.0% 16.7% del Wheat-KC 10 May $3.65 50.0% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 30.0% 16.7% del Wheat-KC 15 May $3.65 46.7% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 20.0% 16.7% del Wheat-KC 20 May $3.65 40.0% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 25.0% 16.7% del Wheat-KC 25 May $3.65 52.0% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 20.0% 16.7% del Wheat-KC 30 May $3.65 46.7% 50.0% May 2005 $3.26 $0.39 20.0% 16.7% del Note:  For each crop listed the review period is from today's date (4/23/2005) to the end of the target month. The Target Probability % is the percent of the time that the Futures hit the Futures Target Price at least one day during the review period. The Move Probability is the percent of the time that the futures move the amount needed to reach the Futures Target Price level during the review period. The Last Years review is based on your selected years, but the similar year figures (if any) are based on MDI's selected years with similar world and US characteristics. A general rule is that if the Target Probability % is a higher percentage than the Move Probability % it is a sign that today's futures price may be undervalued vs. historical price levels. If the Move Probability % is greater than the Target Probability % then today's futures price may be overvalued vs. historical price levels. Similar Years The Years considered Similar are: 1975, 1982, 1989, 1993, 1994, 2003 Copyright © 2005 Market Data, Inc. - MDI - all rights reserved. The information contained in these pages is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed by MDI.  Any action taken as a result of any information or opinions expressed on these pages is taken solely at the liability of the user.  MDI assumes no responsibility or liability for any action taken or not taken as a result of the information contained on these pages.