Market Data, Inc. - A Farm Profit Enhancement Service PO Box 90 Oberlin, Kansas 67749
Phone: (800) 867 - 8289
www.marketdatainc.com
Email: gloho@marketdatainc.com		 Not Logged In    Not Logged In?
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Risk Reward Analysis


Risk Reward Analysis

 MARKET DATA, INC. - RISK REWARD ANALYSIS       Run on: 6/6/2007
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I. INFORMATION REVIEWED FOR:  MDI Example On Dry Land Acres
 
  FIXED COST + PROFIT TARGET AMOUNT PER ACRE   $
 for IV. REWARD
 recalculate with new target->
  (price used for email alerts)    
 
        KC WHEAT CORN MILO SOYBEANS
A. Crop share percentage share:    100.00%  100.00%  100.00%  100.00%
B. Actual Production History (APH): 38.0 70.0 65.0 28.0
C. Insurance Coverage Level on   70.00% 70.00% 70.00% 70.00%
D. Type of Insurance Coverage    ra+ ra+ crc ra+
E. Insurance Coverage Base Price    $5.11 $4.06 $3.83 $8.37
             
F. Actual yield planned of -click here to change B, C, D, or F 45.0 75.0 75.0 30.0
G. MDI Current Local Cash Price $4.31 $3.48 $3.20 $7.40
H. Enter your Cash Price Here: Use   Use   Use   Use  
  Enter your Yield Here:        
  Enter your Expenses Here:        
  * A -0- will default to the MDI numbers.      
        KC WHEAT CORN MILO SOYBEANS
               
II. MDI Variable Costs Per Acre $130.00 $170.24 $153.75 $138.35
               
III. CROP INSURANCE COVERAGE $136.03 $198.94 $174.27 $164.05
  LESS: Variable Costs of     $130.00 $170.24 $153.75 $138.35
  EQUALS NET RISK (-) $6.03 $28.70 $20.51 $25.71
           
IV. PROJECTED CASH CROP INCOME  $270.00 $261.00 $240.12 $222.00
  LESS: Variable Costs of $130.00 $170.24 $153.75 $138.35
  EQUALS NET REWARD (-) $140.00 $90.76 $86.37 $83.65
           
V. TARGET $ PER ACRE $180.00   $220.24  $203.75  $188.35         
                   
VI. CASH TARGET NEEDED
$3.00
$2.94
$2.72
$6.28
  Estimated Basis (minus) ($0.45) ($0.20) ($0.35) ($0.75)
  FUTURES TARGET OF $3.45 $3.14 $3.07 $7.03
           
VII. TARGET FUTURES
SEP KC
DEC CORN
DEC CORN
NOV BEANS
  Current Futures Price $5.11 $3.81 $3.81 $8.37
  MOVE NEEDED ($1.66) ($0.68) ($0.75) ($1.34)
  Move Probability 10 years 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
  Futures Target Probability 60.0% 10.0% 10.0% 40.0%
           
  Move Probability 20 years 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
  Futures Target Probability 60.0% 20.0% 20.0% 35.0%
           
  Move Probability 30 years 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
  Futures Target Probability 60.0% 26.7% 30.0% 46.7%
           
VIII. YIELD NEEDED TO COVER VARIABLE COSTS USING CASH PRICE: 28.89 48.92 48.02 18.70