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MARKET DATA, INC. - USDA REPORT
REVIEW |
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Reported on: |
June 11, 2007 |
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WHEAT |
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A. |
CROP YEAR: |
U.S. 2005/06 |
U.S. 2006/07 |
U.S. 2007/08 |
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World 2005/06 |
World 2006/07 |
World 2007/08 |
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Projected Date: |
This Month |
This Month |
This Month |
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This Month |
This Month |
This Month |
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Carryin Stocks |
540 |
571 |
417 |
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5,556 |
5,474 |
4,481 |
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Production |
2,105 |
1,812 |
2,168 |
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22,864 |
21,829 |
22,419 |
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Imports |
82 |
120 |
100 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total Supply |
2,727 |
2,503 |
2,685 |
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28,420 |
27,303 |
26,900 |
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Feed Use |
154 |
170 |
230 |
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4,106 |
4,011 |
3,856 |
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Crush/Milling |
914 |
925 |
930 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Seed/Other |
78 |
82 |
81 |
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18,840 |
18,811 |
18,927 |
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Exports |
1,009 |
910 |
1,000 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total Use |
2,155 |
2,087 |
2,241 |
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22,946 |
22,822 |
22,783 |
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Carryout Stocks |
571 |
417 |
443 |
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5,474 |
4,481 |
4,116 |
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United States |
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Stocks-to-Use % |
26.50% |
19.96% |
19.77% |
Cash price of |
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23.86% |
19.63% |
18.07% |
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Days of Supply |
97 |
73 |
72 |
$4.80 |
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87 |
72 |
66 |
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1990 to 2006 |
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99 |
$3.29 |
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1990 to 2006 |
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110 |
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1970 to present |
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142 |
$3.13 |
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1970 to present |
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106 |
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SOYBEANS |
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B. |
CROP YEAR: |
U.S. 2005/06 |
U.S. 2006/07 |
U.S. 2007/08 |
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World 2005/06 |
World 2006/07 |
World 2007/08 |
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Projected Date: |
This Month |
This Month |
This Month |
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This Month |
This Month |
This Month |
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Carryin Stocks |
256 |
449 |
610 |
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1,780 |
1,982 |
2,337 |
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Production |
3,063 |
3,188 |
2,745 |
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8,104 |
8,650 |
8,279 |
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Imports |
3 |
4 |
4 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total Supply |
3,322 |
3,641 |
3,359 |
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9,884 |
10,632 |
10,616 |
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Feed Use |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Crush/Milling |
1,739 |
1,770 |
1,790 |
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6,808 |
7,134 |
7,475 |
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Seed/Other |
187 |
182 |
169 |
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1,094 |
1,161 |
1,157 |
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Exports |
947 |
1,080 |
1,080 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total Use |
2,873 |
3,032 |
3,039 |
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7,902 |
8,295 |
8,632 |
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Carryout Stocks |
449 |
610 |
320 |
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1,982 |
2,337 |
1,984 |
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United States |
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Stocks-to-Use % |
15.63% |
20.11% |
10.52% |
Cash price of |
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25.08% |
28.17% |
22.99% |
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Days of Supply |
57 |
73 |
38 |
$7.15 |
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92 |
103 |
84 |
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1990 to 2006 |
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36 |
$5.75 |
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1990 to 2006 |
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61 |
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1970 to present |
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45 |
$5.69 |
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1970 to present |
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70 |
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CORN |
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C. |
CROP YEAR: |
U.S. 2005/06 |
U.S. 2006/07 |
U.S. 2007/08 |
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World 2005/06 |
World 2006/07 |
World 2007/08 |
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Projected Date: |
This Month |
This Month |
This Month |
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This Month |
This Month |
This Month |
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Carryin Stocks |
2,114 |
1,967 |
987 |
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5,144 |
4,819 |
3,727 |
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Production |
11,114 |
10,535 |
12,460 |
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27,398 |
27,531 |
30,233 |
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Imports |
9 |
10 |
15 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total Supply |
13,237 |
12,512 |
13,462 |
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32,542 |
32,351 |
33,961 |
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Feed Use |
6,141 |
5,850 |
5,700 |
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18,728 |
18,728 |
19,059 |
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Crush/Milling |
2,951 |
3,495 |
4,760 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Seed/Other |
30 |
30 |
30 |
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8,994 |
9,895 |
11,287 |
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Exports |
2,147 |
2,150 |
1,975 |
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0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total Use |
11,269 |
11,525 |
12,465 |
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27,723 |
28,624 |
30,347 |
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Carryout Stocks |
1,967 |
987 |
997 |
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4,819 |
3,727 |
3,614 |
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United States |
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Stocks-to-Use % |
17.46% |
8.56% |
8.00% |
Cash price of |
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17.38% |
13.02% |
11.91% |
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Days of Supply |
64 |
31 |
29 |
$3.40 |
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63 |
48 |
43 |
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1990 to 2006 |
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57 |
$2.26 |
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1990 to 2006 |
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94 |
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1970 to present |
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77 |
$2.28 |
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1970 to present |
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92 |
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Days of Supply is figured by taking the ending
stocks and dividing them by the total use for that year times 365 days. |
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MARKET DATA, INC. - USDA REPORT REVIEW |
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June
11, 2007 |
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D. |
SUMMARY: |
US Carryout |
Stocks to Use |
Average |
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World Carryout |
Stocks to Use |
Days of |
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Percentage |
US Price |
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Percentage |
Supply |
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2007/08 |
2007/08 |
2007/08 |
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2007/08 |
2007/08 |
2007/08 |
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1. |
CORN |
997 |
8.00% |
$3.40 |
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3,727 |
11.91% |
43 |
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2. |
BEANS |
320 |
10.52% |
$7.15 |
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1,984 |
22.99% |
84 |
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3. |
WHEAT |
443 |
19.77% |
$4.80 |
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4,481 |
18.07% |
66 |
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E. |
ALL USDA'S |
1,760 |
9.92% |
36 |
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10,192 |
16.50% |
60 |
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F. |
AVERAGE U.S. price of Corn, Wheat & Beans |
$5.12 |
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G. |
COMMENTS ON THE USDA ESTIMATES: |
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1. |
2007/2008 WHEAT: USDA
lowered their 2007 U.S. crop yield by .2 to 41.5 bushel per acre, raised
harvested acres by 100,000 to 52.1 million |
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for a 2007 U.S. wheat crop of 2.168 billion
bushel or down just 6 million - AFTER - resurveying the key states where
freeze occurred - ??? |
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Their 2007 U.S. demand was placed at 930 million
for food, 81 million for seed, 1.0 billion of exports (up 25 million), and
230 million for feed. |
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This when combined with imports of 100 million
bushel and beginning stocks of 417 million (up 5 on more imports) left ending
stocks |
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at 443 million (down 26 million). World
production figures fell sharply with the FSU nations showing the most drop
due to dry weather. |
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Argentina's
production rose 1.2 MMT (?) to 14.0, the U.S. was at 59.0 MMT, China at 100
MMT, India at 73.7, Russia down 3.5 to 45.0, |
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the Ukraine down 3.5 to 17.5, the EU-27 was
steady at 127.32 MMT, and Australia was left at 22.1 MMT.. World demand was
lowered by |
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3.8 MMT to 620.07 and ending world stocks fell
1.33 MMT to 112.03 or a record low ending days of supply. Due to the lower |
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U.S. and world ending stocks - this was a slightly BULLISH crop report for wheat. |
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2. |
2007/2008 SOYBEANS: USDA
left acres at their March 30th report figure of 67.1 million, harvested acres
of 66.1 million and placed the |
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yield at 41.5 million for a 2007 U.S. soybean
crop of 2.745 billion bushel. This is
down considerably from 2006's 3.188 billion but may be |
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the lowest production you will see this year.
U.S. demand was left at 1.790 billion for crush, 1.080 billion of exports and
169 million of other. |
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This
caused the ending stocks to fall to 320 million bushel and down to a friendly
days of supply level. The world projections for 2007/2008 |
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were
very friendly as they placed production at 225.32 MMT (down 10 MMT from last
year), world use at 234.28 MMT (up nearly 10 MMT |
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from last year), and ending world stocks fell to
54 MMT (down 9.6 MMT). The lower stocks made this a FRIENDLY
soybeans report. |
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3. |
2007/2008 CORN: USDA left
acres at their March 30th report figure of 90.5 million, harvested acres of
82.9 million and placed the yield at |
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just
150.3 which caused a 2007 U.S. corn crop of 12.460 billion bushel. Their
demand figures showed feed use down 150 million to 5.700 |
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billion, ethanol use up a large 1.25 billion to
3.400 billion and seed and industrial use at 1.390 billion. With 15 million
of imports this left |
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the ending carryout rose 50 (less 06/07 exports)
to 997 million bushel. The world situation is projected to see
767.96 MMT of production |
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(up 2.46 MMT due mostly to higher FSU
production), world demand is placed at 770.84 MMT (up 1.4 MMT) and ending
world stocks |
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are shown at 91.8 MMT (up 1.55 from a month ago
but down 2.7 from 06/07). The world production estimates are the U.S. at 316
MMT, |
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China
at 146 MMT, Brazil at 50, Argentina at 24, Mexico at 23.8, the EU-27 at 55.72
MMT, and the FSU-12 at 15.2 MMT.. The projected |
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world production and use figures are new
records. Due to the low ending days of supply this is a FRIENDLY corn report. |
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CALL US AT 1-800-867-8289 FOR MARKETING STRATEGIES RELATING TO THIS
CROP REPORT! |
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Copyright 2007 Market Data, Inc. - MDI - all
rights reserved. The information contained in these pages is believed to be |
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accurate
but is not guaranteed by MDI. Any action taken as a result of any
information or opinions expressed on these |
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pages
is taken solely at the liability of the user. MDI assumes no
responsibility or liability for any action taken or not |
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taken as a result of the information contained
on these pages or in this website. |
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