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Example Crop or Livestock Enterprise Target Price Quick Check
Cash Target Price Quick Check
Example Only - this example will not calculate probabilities
A. Crop or Livestock:  
B. Check for: Price    Probability (check this in order to use the Probability % in item E. below)
C. Cash Target Price    or   Futures Target Price   if $0 cash basis
D. Local Cash Basis    + Cash Basis    - Cash Basis
E. Probability %    of    Target    Move            (only used if Probability is checked in B. above)
F. Sale Month
G. Years to Review
Calculate Quick Check
Number of Quick Checks Left: 50  
Clear All Quick Checks
Printable View
Sale Month Target Price Less Local Basis Futures Target Price Target Probability Futures Futures Move Needed Move Probability
Last years Similar Years Month Year Price Last years Similar Years
Apr $2.05 ($0.13) $2.18 100.0% 100.0% May 2002 $2.08 $0.10 40.0% 57.1%
Apr $2.20 $0.00 $2.20 100.0% 100.0% May 2002 $2.08 $0.12 30.0% 42.9%
Apr $2.33 $0.00 $2.33 75.0% 85.7% May 2002 $2.08 $0.25 10.0% 14.3%
Apr $2.17 $0.00 $2.17 100.0% 100.0% May 2002 $2.08 $0.09 50.0% 71.4%

Note:  For each crop listed the review period is from today's date (3/09/2002) to the end of the sale month. The Target Probability % is the percent of the time that the Futures hit the Futures Target Price at least one day during the review period. The Move Probability is the percent of the time that the futures move the amount needed to reach the Futures Target Price level during the review period. The Last Years review is based on your selected years, but the similar year figures (if any) are based on MDI's selected years with similar world and US characteristics. A general rule is that if the Target Probability % is a higher percentage than the Move Probability % it is a sign that today's futures price is undervalued vs. historical price levels. If the Move Probability % is greater than the Target Probability % then today's futures price is overvalued vs. historical price levels.

The first review shows the odds of obtaining a $2.05 cash price assuming a ($.13) cash basis during the period 3/09/2002 to 04/30/2002 (end of sale month) - note the red highlighted areas that signify the criteria used by the Quick check. The odds are 100% that this price has been reached each of the last 10 years BUT the odds of the futures price moving the $.10 needed to reach the $2.18 futures price (-$.13 basis) in order to achieve this net price are only 40% in the last 10 years. The similar years percentages are based on just the specific years that MDI is currently using on corn. These are years that MDI feels are most comparable to the current U.S. and world situations.

The second review is where a futures only price is being reviewed with a -0- basis figure assumed. The odds of the futures moving from today's $2.08 price to $2.20 are 30% (based on a $.12 move up) but in the last 10 years the futures have hit this price during the period reviewed 100% of the time.

The third review uses the Probability button (vs. the price button) - see the second entry area - B. By selecting probability and 75% of the target (price) - see to the right of the 75% - E, Quick check calculates the futures price that was obtained 75% of the time in the last 10 years during the period of 3/09/2002 to 4/30/2002 - which is $2.33. Note that the 75% figure is highlighted in red and also that a move of $.25 to this level would only occur 10% of the time or happened only once in the last 10 years.

The last review uses the Probability button in B and a Move (second button to the right of the probability % in E) and asks what price movement up occurred 50% of the time in the last 10 years. The answer is $.09 which equates to a $2.17 futures target price based on a starting futures price of $2.08 as of 03/09/02.

A user can select 1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 or 30 years to review under the Years to Review button located at the bottom of the screen. Pressing Calculate Quick check activates the review and a counter listing the number of Quick checks left is also shown.

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