Note:
For each crop listed the review period is from today's date
(3/09/2002) to the end of the sale month. The Target Probability
% is the percent of the time that the Futures hit the Futures
Target Price at least one day during the review period. The
Move Probability is the percent of the time that the futures
move the amount needed to reach the Futures Target Price level
during the review period. The Last Years review is based on
your selected years, but the similar year figures (if any)
are based on MDI's selected years with similar world and US
characteristics. A general rule is that if the Target Probability
% is a higher percentage than the Move Probability % it is
a sign that today's futures price is undervalued vs. historical
price levels. If the Move Probability % is greater than the
Target Probability % then today's futures price is overvalued
vs. historical price levels.
The first review shows the odds of obtaining a $2.05 cash
price assuming a ($.13) cash basis during the period 3/09/2002
to 04/30/2002 (end of sale month)  note the red highlighted
areas that signify the criteria used by the Quick check. The
odds are 100% that this price has been reached each of the
last 10 years BUT the odds of the futures price moving the
$.10 needed to reach the $2.18 futures price ($.13 basis)
in order to achieve this net price are only 40% in the last
10 years. The similar years percentages are based on just
the specific years that MDI is currently using on corn. These
are years that MDI feels are most comparable to the current
U.S. and world situations.
The second review is where a futures only price is being
reviewed with a 0 basis figure assumed. The odds of the
futures moving from today's $2.08 price to $2.20 are 30% (based
on a $.12 move up) but in the last 10 years the futures have
hit this price during the period reviewed 100% of the time.
The third review uses the Probability button (vs. the price
button)  see the second entry area  B. By selecting probability
and 75% of the target (price)  see to the right of the 75%
 E, Quick check calculates the futures price that was obtained
75% of the time in the last 10 years during the period of
3/09/2002 to 4/30/2002  which is $2.33. Note that the 75%
figure is highlighted in red and also that a move of $.25
to this level would only occur 10% of the time or happened
only once in the last 10 years.
The last review uses the Probability button in B and a Move
(second button to the right of the probability % in E) and
asks what price movement up occurred 50% of the time in the
last 10 years. The answer is $.09 which equates to a $2.17
futures target price based on a starting futures price of
$2.08 as of 03/09/02.
A user can select 1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 or 30 years
to review under the Years to Review button located at the
bottom of the screen. Pressing Calculate Quick check activates
the review and a counter listing the number of Quick checks
left is also shown.
