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Prepared For: MDI Example
Review For: Wheat-KC
Oberlin  Basis
New Crop Pricing
Pricing for NEW CROP based on September  2008 futures from Oct-2 to Aug-22 (324 days) is rated GOOD.
Current NC cash of $6.06 is approximately $1.94 from being FAIR and $2.54 from POOR.
The current futures price is $6.76 is at 100.57% of the $6.72 historical high on 8/14/2007.
Plus the current basis of ($0.70) which is ($0.39)  WORSE than the past average of ($0.31).
Equals NEW CROP cash price of $6.06 This price is 158.86%  $2.25 ABOVE the past average of $3.81.
The historical cash price movement from high to low during the period reviewed has been $1.71.
Historical Futures Movements
From All Years  (01/01/1970 to 10/8/2007) Review and SIMILAR Years Review
Current September Futures of $6.76 < All & Similar> $6.76 Starting PRICE
Have an Average Move Up of $1.22 and Down ($0.85) $1.28 or Down ($1.22)
Equaling an Average High Price of $7.98 or to Low of $5.91 $8.04 or Low $5.54
With an Average Ending price of $6.67 or Down ($0.09) or $6.75 or Down ($0.01)
Historical Futures Facts are that: ALL and SIMILAR to a price of and are at or above this price
They move and trade UP by $0.50 or more 20.87   12.44 $7.26 0.00% of the time
They move and trade UP by $0.25 or more 29.13   23.38 $7.01 0.00% of the time
They move and trade DOWN by ($0.25) or below 37.86   41.29 $6.51 1.00% of the time
They move and trade DOWN by ($0.50) or below 23.30   31.34 $6.26 2.99% of the time
 days out of 100
 in our similar years
Similar Years
The Years considered Similar are: 1974, 1975, 1996, 2006  

US Ending Days of Supply

World Ending Days of Supply
These years had Average US Ending Stocks of 431 with an average US Farm Price of $4.00 76.7 88.9
vs the current projected US Ending Stocks of 362 and an average US Farm Price of $5.80 57.7 66.3
alt Notes
(1) Look at the price needed to get to a GOOD and from a POOR in combination with the Historical Futures Movements to see if an Average Move up or down will reach these levels.
(2) Check our GOOD (good time for price protection or sales) and POOR (time to take LDP's , MLG's, or make feed purchases) ratings. See our historical accuracy by selecting Home - then - Ratings Review from the main menubar.
Copyright © 2007 Market Data, Inc. - MDI - all rights reserved. The information contained in these pages is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed by MDI.  Any action taken as a result of any information or opinions expressed on these pages is taken solely at the liability of the user.  MDI assumes no responsibility or liability for any action taken or not taken as a result of the information contained on these pages.