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P.O. Box 90
Oberlin, Kansas 67749 |
Phone: (800)
867- 8289 |
Fax: (785) 475 - 3864
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Crop Type
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Continuous or Double Crop
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Dryland
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Irrigated or Semi-Irr.
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Number
of Acres: |
0 |
990 |
125 |
Sale
Month: |
August |
Estimated
Crop Yield: |
0 |
45 |
70 |
Cash
Target Price: |
$4.25 |
Your
% Share of Acres: |
0.00% |
89.90% |
100.00% |
Estimated
basis: |
($0.45) |
Qty
Reserved for Feed or Seed: |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Target
Dollars: |
$207,402 |
CRC/MPCI
Units: |
0 |
23,674 |
4,813 |
Total CRC/MPCI: |
28,487 |
Number
of Units to Sell: |
0 |
40,050 |
8,750 |
Total Units to Sell: |
48,800 |
#
of Review Years: |
30 |
CCP Price:
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$3.31 |
CCP Units: |
37,259 |
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The program assumes pre-harvest cash sales, short Futures hedges (or
any other marketing technique with non-delivery risk) of up to 20%
on continuous or double crop, 40% on dry land, 50% on semi-irrigated,
60% on irrigated can be made under our Rules of Risk review. |
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Planned Marketing Strategies |
Order Date |
Sale Type |
Sale Units |
Market
Price |
Plus
Basis(-) |
Cost
(if any) |
Target Price |
% of Total |
11/19/2006 |
Cash Sale |
1,900 |
$4.70 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$4.70 |
3.9% |
Notes: |
Local Elevator |
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11/21/2006 |
Put Options Order |
25,000 |
$5.20 |
-$0.45 |
$0.15 |
$4.60 |
51.2% |
Notes: |
Local Broker |
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11/21/2006 |
Hedge Order |
10,000 |
$5.30 |
-$0.45 |
$0.00 |
$4.85 |
20.5% |
Notes: |
Local Broker |
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11/21/2006 |
Cash Sale |
1,900 |
$5.25 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$5.25 |
3.9% |
Notes: |
Local Elevator |
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Odds of Success of Planned Marketing
Strategies
from January 30, 2007
to the end of the Sale Month |
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Sale
Month |
Cash
Target Price |
Cash
Basis |
Other costs |
Futures Target
Price |
Current
Sep - 07
Futures |
Futures
Move Needed |
Target Probability |
Move Probability |
Last years |
Similar Years |
Last years |
Similar Years |
Target |
Aug |
$4.25 |
($0.45) |
$0.00 |
$4.70 |
$5.06 |
$0.00 |
20.0% |
60.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Planned |
Aug |
$4.70 |
($0.45) |
$0.00 |
$5.15 |
$5.06 |
$0.09 |
6.7% |
40.0% |
76.7% |
100.0% |
Planned |
Aug |
$4.60 |
($0.45) |
$0.15 |
$5.20 |
$5.06 |
$0.14 |
6.7% |
40.0% |
73.3% |
100.0% |
Planned |
Aug |
$4.85 |
($0.45) |
$0.00 |
$5.30 |
$5.06 |
$0.24 |
3.3% |
40.0% |
60.0% |
80.0% |
Planned |
Aug |
$5.25 |
($0.45) |
$0.00 |
$5.70 |
$5.06 |
$0.64 |
3.3% |
40.0% |
23.3% |
40.0% |
You will receive an email alert when one of your targets is at or within $0.05 of being reached.
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Actual Marketing Plan Strategies
Completed |
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(A) |
(B) |
(C) |
(D) |
(E) |
(F) |
(G) |
(H) |
Date |
Sale Type |
Cash Sale Units |
Hedged Units |
Price per Unit |
Total Dollars Received |
Units Unsold or Hedged |
Target $ Left |
New Target per Unit |
% of Total |
3/20/2005 |
Cash Sale |
10,000 |
0 |
$4.50 |
$45,000 |
38,800 |
$162,402 |
$4.19 |
20.5% |
Notes: |
Elevator |
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Summary Totals |
10,000 |
0 |
$4.50
Average |
$45,000 |
38,800 |
$162,402 |
$4.19 |
20.5% |
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Target Order Summary Total: |
80% |
Combined Sales and Orders: |
100% |
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Based on your cash target price of $4.25
times the unsold units of 38,800, your potential income is
$2,500 above
your target dollars of $207,402
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If your actual marketing is combined with the planned marketing strategies and the remaining production is sold at your cash target price you would arrive at total dollars of $210,755. This would be $3,353 over your target dollars. Your average price would be $4.32.
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ALERT ! - If your target orders are successful,
maximum pre-harvest cash sales or pre-harvest hedge bushels will be
2,530
over what you should sell according to MDI's Rules of Risk which is
21,270 bushels. |
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